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CHINA, INDIA AND BRAZIL –ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT DEBATED  

Middle Temple, London 29 September 2005  

Senior representatives from the following institutions attended the Cambrensis Ltd seminar on Energy and the Environment in China, India and Brazil at the Middle Temple, London on 29 th September 2005 –  

Arthur D. Little Limited
BBC
Cambrensis Ltd
Cape Farewell
Cardiff University
Confederation of British Industry
Climate Change Capital
Department for Transport Chief Scientist’s Office
Embassy of Brazil
Foreign and Commonwealth Office
Futerra Sustainability Communications Ltd
Imperial College
Indian High Commission
Marches Energy Agency
NESTA
Rolls Royce plc
University College
UTD Research Ltd  

Cambrensis Ltd has now released the Chairman's Summary of this event from Professor David Slater CB -

Chairman’s Summary

The day provided a very helpful resume of the current understanding, of international intentions and particularly the concerns and contributions of the ‘+5’ in the G8 +5 acronym (i.e. China, India, Brazil, South Africa and Mexico).

The theme of the debate reiterated by speaker after speaker was to ask the questions:

• What should be done?
• Who would do it?
• Who should pay?

William Wilson reminded us of a famous Thatcher quote asserting that the problem was so serious that there was no point in squabbling over who should pay. But again the speakers underlined, that for developing economies this was a very real issue, even though it seemed that there was consensus on the anthropogenic influences of every countries energy policies on climate change.

James Cameron made the point that even putting the case ‘non hysterically’ there is increasingly acceptance of the extent and urgency of the issue. Indeed even the ‘hysterical’ features – melting ice sheets, vegetation source/sink reversal etc, all seem to be being demonstrated at an alarmingly accelerating pace. William Wilson showed us graphically the effect of a 7 meter sea rise (from the melting of ice caps etc) and commented that by accepting this extent of sea rise we will have effectively written off London.

The status of the Kyoto agreement was raised by many of the speakers and again a consensus emerged that:

• It is still the only real framework for action;
• Far from seeing competition from US led Technology Partnerships, we need them as well, (it is all complementary) and we need it all now!
• Nuclear – yes explore every avenue.

James Cameron highlighted the financial opportunities that carbon pricing will generate. Pension funds and other fiduciary interests must act proactively to protect the long-term viability of their investments.

The Royal Society has been commendably proactive in brokering international consensus for distinguished and unimpeachable ‘science’. Much of their language is filtering through to political pronouncements (e.g. the UN) but science is tending to stay out of debate, some would say legitimately protecting its independence and integrity, leaving a gap in communicating to the public an awareness of its real seriousness and implications. In the US there also seems to be a perception that the dominance of fundamentalist politicians has made rational discussion of the issues much more difficult. Is perhaps global warming part of the intelligent design?

The FCO contribution was reassuring in that climate change issues were a clearly recognised strategic priority (No 7) and was positive on the understandings developed at the G8+5 (more than one contributor, including the Brazilian, were more sceptical about the effectiveness of the G77 as a worthwhile forum).

From the ADL China office, came clear signals that this demand for energy is inexorably and rapidly rising (2 new coal fired power stations per week). The recently confirmed, joint China/UK government project (BP) in clean coal generation with carbon sequestration was a welcome initiative, but by 2012 would it be too little too late?

The Chinese market is fortunately at present more regulation driven than market driven, so there is a gleam of hope here.

The Indian High Commission speaker’s contribution highlighted their duty as a government to meet the legitimate aspirations of their citizens and also tactfully raised the issue of who should pay.

Tom Burke in a masterly overview pulled it all together and showed:

• We now have very little time to move, even to stabilise the existing situation (point of no return!)
• There is now no question, but that globally, the issue was getting to grips with COAL.

He expressed the feeling that the time had come to reframe the debate from traditional NGO (prophets of doom) posturing to constructive contributions, to a politically ‘DIFFICULT’ question.

The alternative to action, indecision and political inertia. is still very much a possibility, (even a probability),.What this derogation of leadership would do would be to allow the situation to ‘drift’ into irreversible damage with these truly global problems and challenges ignored as just too “difficult”..

So let’s move on from the grim consensus on diagnosis, and ask what have we got to be optimistic about? I have gathered from the speakers and other contributions, that there are indeed a number of positive gleams, which could be discerned:

• There does now seem to be a common understanding globally, (albeit mainly governments not populations!) of the scale and nature of the climate change problem.
• There does seem to be a greater willingness from governments to work together (G8+5)
• The scientific consensus is now very strong, consistent and authorititative.
• There are real and growing financial pressures for proactive ‘risk’ management
• The growing prosperity of emerging economies offers new opportunities for addressing the problem.

Cambrensis Ltd has also released the presentation given at the seminar by Cambrensis Director William Wilson -

Click here to see the presentation (Large File - 3Mb)

It was agreed that Cambrensis Ltd’s next seminar in London ‘Update on Carbon Sequestration and Storage’ on 1 December 2005 was highly relevant and topical to most of the issues discussed, particularly given the publication of the IPCC Special Report on Carbon Capture and Storage, and moves to apply these technologies in the North Seam China and elsewhere in the world.

For further information about Cambrensis Ltd, or about attending any Cambrensis Ltd seminar, please contact us

 

 

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